A quest for reality 3
This week we’ve discussed readings on topics like statistics and markets. Reading all these works, however, led me to realize that I wasn’t thinking well in general.
Now, if you don’t know the name Charlie Munger, I highly recommend you check him out. Charlie Munger is an investor and lawyer best known for his long-standing partnership with Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway. He’s Buffett’s right-hand man. You can buy bronze busts of the pair, if you’re still thinking of Christmas gifts for your family nerds (or for me).
Charlie’s also known as a wise old sage who imparts his hard-earned, frank proverbs to the next generation. One of his more famous videos is a 20-minute interview describing human nature. I’ll let YouTube’s algorithms do the rest. I’m also interested in reading Poor Charlie’s Almanack, The Tao of Charlie Munger, and Seeking Wisdom, but I haven’t gotten around to it…
At any rate, Munger led me to Farnam Street, a popular blog on Wall Street. If you’re into learning the wisdom of those who have gone before, or about how to make better decisions, to learn better and faster, to read more, and the like, FS is the go-to resource.
Its proprietor, Shane Parrish, is a former intelligence analyst profiled in The New York Times with this title: “How a Former Canadian Spy Helps Wall Street Mavens Think Smarter.” His blog is top notch, his Sunday newsletter too. So, naturally, I had to read all of his books, for which you can find a summary on the Mental Models page.
The Great Mental Models Vol. 1: General Thinking Concepts by Shane Parrish
This book, which I listened to on Audible, provided a comprehensive guide to the most important concepts, models, and ideas for effective thinking. It’s an in-depth look at the various mental models that are essential for navigating the world, including systems thinking, cognitive biases, mathematics and probability, decision making, cognitive science, economics, finance and investing, psychology and philosophy, and human behavior. The book also includes real-world examples and case studies to illustrate the application of these mental models, as well as tips for using them in everyday life.
The Great Mental Models Vol. 2: Physics, Chemistry, and Biology by Shane Parrish
This book, which I listened to on Audible, focuses on the mental models of topics such as Newton’s laws of motion, the periodic table of elements, the laws of thermodynamics, and the structure of life.
The Great Mental Models Vol. 3: Systems and Mathematics by Shane Parrish
This book, which I listened to on Audible, focuses on the mental models of ideas such as game theory, systems thinking, Bayesian inference, probability theory, and calculus.
Rationality by Steven Pinker
Steven Pinker is another thinker I’ve latched onto this year. Steven Pinker is an acclaimed cognitive scientist and linguist at Harvard, whose books have been influential in the fields of psychology, language, and understanding the human mind.
I’ve always liked Pinker, having read his book The Sense of Style, my favorite on grammar and style. And I was drawn years ago to his thinking on language pragmatics. (I was once accepted into a master’s program in ethics at Aberdeen in Scotland to study lying, of which linguistics is an important component.)
The thing I like most about him is that, though he’s firmly in the political left, he has no qualms calling out the irrationality of his own political party, seeking a more centrist, balanced, and gracious view of many hot-button issues. The books I read are no exception.
This first book, which I listened to on Audible, gives a compelling argument for the power of reason in the modern world. Pinker argues that rationality is the key to success in today’s complex environment. He explains in detail why we should strive to make decisions based on evidence rather than emotion, and why this will result in better outcomes. He also shows how our ability to think rationally can be improved through practice and training. Rationality is an invaluable resource for anyone interested in improving their decision-making skills.
Here’s the Amazon description, which captures its essence:
Can reading a book make you more rational? Can it help us understand why there is so much irrationality in the world?
Today humanity is reaching new heights of scientific understanding—and also appears to be losing its mind. How can a species that developed vaccines for Covid-19 in less than a year produce so much fake news, medical quackery, and conspiracy theorizing?
Pinker rejects the cynical cliché that humans are simply irrational—cavemen out of time saddled with biases, fallacies, and illusions. After all, we discovered the laws of nature, lengthened and enriched our lives, and set out the benchmarks for rationality itself. We actually think in ways that are sensible in the low-tech contexts in which we spend most of our lives, but fail to take advantage of the powerful tools of reasoning we’ve discovered over the millennia: logic, critical thinking, probability, correlation and causation, and optimal ways to update beliefs and commit to choices individually and with others. These tools are not a standard part of our education, and have never been presented clearly and entertainingly in a single book—until now.
Rationality also explores its opposite: how the rational pursuit of self-interest, sectarian solidarity, and uplifting mythology can add up to crippling irrationality in a society. Collective rationality depends on norms that are explicitly designed to promote objectivity and truth.
Rationality matters. It leads to better choices in our lives and in the public sphere, and is the ultimate driver of social justice and moral progress. Brimming with Pinker’s customary insight and humor, Rationality will enlighten, inspire, and empower.
Enlightenment Now by Steven Pinker
This book, which I listened to on Audible, is hailed as Bill Gates’s favorite book. Pinker argues that, by embracing the ideals of the Enlightenment, we can create a better world for all. He argues that, in contrast to the doom and gloom of headlines like you’d find on the Times opinion page, we are actually making huge strides in human progress. He explores the many aspects of life that have been improved by advances in science, technology, and human rights. He provides detailed evidence to support his thesis that the Enlightenment values of reason, science, humanism, and progress are the keys to a future of prosperity, freedom, and well-being.
How the World Really Works by Vaclav Smil
Like Pinker, Vaclav Smil is an agent of the rational pursuits. Vaclav Smil is a prolific Czech-Canadian scientist and author who has written over forty books and five hundred papers on topics ranging from energy and food to climate change and the environment. He also happens to be Bill Gates’s favorite author.
This book really opened my eyes to the complexity of the world we live in, or perhaps on. It’s a fairly comprehensive exploration of the complexity of our planet. The preface argues that in order to truly understand the world in all its complexity, we must first develop an understanding of the sheer scale of the numbers that make up the world. To aid readers in this quest, Smil has included an appendix that provides a basic guide to understanding numbers on a very large scale: He explains orders of magnitude, as well as multiples in the international number system, such as hecto, kilo, mega, giga, tera, peta, and so on.
The remainder of the book provides a detailed look at the various components of the planet and how they interact with each other. From energy and climate to food and population, Smil dives deep into the topics and provides readers descriptions of the forces that shape our world. He also looks at the history of these topics, exploring the past in order to better understand the present.
For instance, he argues that just four materials comprise so much of the modern world, including a quarter of the world’s carbon emissions: cement, steel, plastics, and ammonia. “In 2020,” he writes, “nearly 4 billion people would not have been alive without synthetic ammonia,” the ingredient that amplifies the productivity of modern agriculture.
Speaking of energy and food, “we could not harvest such abundance, and in such a highly predictable manner, without the still-rising inputs of fossil fuels and electricity.” This production has decrease the world’s undernourished peoples from 65% in 1950 to just 8.9% in 2019. It’s helped reduce the poverty rate by half since then too.
Thinking in this huge scale over vast amounts of time puts things into perspective, especially when I read or engage in discussions of energy, climate change, or poverty.
Unsettled by Steve Koonin
And speaking of climate change, I also read Unsettled by Steven Koonin on Audible. It’s an interesting one if you’re into the topic of climate change. To get a gist, read his articles on The Wall Street Journal, starting with this one.
Koonin is a Cal Tech-trained physicist and former Obama Administration Under Secretary of Energy, and his book offers an in-depth exploration of the science behind climate change and its potential consequences. He examines the current state of climate science and provides an analysis of the various models used to predict future climate change.
The point of the book is that “the science” is not as clear cut as we’re led to believe. He of course believes that humans contribute to climate change, and that we should do what we can to reduce carbon emissions impacting the climate. However, to what extent and for what reasons is harder to know. Models are just that—models. They work on assumptions, estimates, and calculations that are subject to change, and some of those assumptions are impossible to know and forecast. He then goes on to discuss the policy implications of climate change, as well as potential solutions that could be implemented to mitigate its effects.
Conclusion
All this to say, I feel as though I think differently now, better perhaps. But, as Christine has pointed out, it hasn’t made me a kinder person. Another friend said, after a long discussion about politics, diversity, and other topics, “You sound defensive.” Christine and my friend are right. I think I’m just more skeptical now of what I read and hear, and feel as though I’ve exited a cave and can see the sun for the first time. I feel excited by these ideas, hopeful about them, but also a little scared.
What do I really think about so many important topics? If there’s one thing I’ve learned, many of these ideas all trace their roots back to a few core authors and books.
Thankfully, an old president of Harvard, Mortimer Adler, collected them all into a 54-volume series called the Great Books of the Western World. Reading through these will be my next project, starting with Machiavelli and Hobbes over Christmas break. I’ll be back to work through these with you then.